Virginia voters split between Trump and Biden, poll reveals
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are in a close race for support among Virginia voters, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
The poll shows Trump with 45% support and Biden with 43%, while 11% of voters remain undecided.
When undecided voters are pushed to choose a candidate, both Trump and Biden's support increases to 50%.
"In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits."
Trump also leads Biden among male voters by 12 points, while Biden leads among women by six points, a smaller margin than in 2020.
In a matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump holds a slight edge with 47% support to Harris’s 45%, with 9% undecided. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump’s lead widens to five points, with 43% support to Biden’s 38%. Third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein receive 8%, 2%, and 2% support respectively, while 8% remain undecided.
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In the Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine leads Republican challenger Hung Cao by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
"Eight percent of those voting for Kaine say they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 3% of Cao voters supporting Biden," Kimball noted. Kaine has a strong lead among voters in their 30s by 27 points, while Biden leads Trump by 7 points among these same voters.
Most Virginia voters (71%) believe the United States is on the wrong track, while 29% think the country is headed in the right direction.
Conversely, 59% of voters think Virginia is headed in the right direction, with 41% believing the state is on the wrong track.
President Biden’s job approval stands at 37% among Virginia voters, with 53% disapproving of his performance.
CHESAPEAKE, VIRGINIA - JUNE 28: Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin during a rally at Greenbrier Farms on June 28, 2024 in Chesapeake, Virginia. Last night Trump and U.S
Governor Glenn Youngkin has a 46% approval rating, with 38% disapproving.
The economy is the top issue for Virginia voters at 40%, followed by housing affordability (12%), immigration (9%), threats to democracy (9%), education (7%), abortion access (6%), healthcare (6%), and crime (6%).
Regarding abortion laws in Virginia, 44% of voters would like them to be less strict, 35% want them to remain as they are, and 21% prefer more strict laws. Among Republicans, 43% favor stricter laws, while 68% of Democrats want them less strict. Independents are split, with 42% favoring no change and 39% wanting less strict laws.
The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling between July 14-15, 2024, with a sample of 1,000 registered voters.
Statewide voter parameters weighted the data, and the credibility interval is +/- 3%. The survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media and involved cell phone and landline respondents, along with an online panel.