Weather shift could bring early start to monsoon season

PHOENIX (KSAZ) - Monsoon season is fast approaching. In fact, it's going to hit us earlier than expected.

Weather experts believe this will be the state's earliest start to the monsoon ever, thanks in large part to a hurricane that is moving in from the Pacific.

"How much rain am I gonna get at my house? That's the question we can't answer because the monsoon is so fluky," said Jaret Rogers, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Forecasters working hard at the NWS say they have a rough idea on how much rain we might get.

"Going back to 1895, I think there were only 17 or so days where rainfall over 0.15 inches in Phoenix has a occurred in a single day, and that's kinda what the models are forecasting for Saturday," said Rogers.

Driving conditions won't be good

"Have a plan, especially if you live in a more rural area," said Rogers. "If you know areas that flood, just a have a plan in case that road does flood, and you definitely don't want to drive through that.".

The dust won't be fun.

"Just pull over as far as you possibly can," said Rogers. "Visiblity is really reduced, because you don't want to be stuck on the roadway and not being able to see in front of you."

But how bad will it be?

"One storm could produce a lot of rain in one area, and another area, it stays dry," said Rogers. "So trying to forecast that a month before it starts is difficult for meteorologists."

An early start also doesn't mean an early finish.

"There's really not necessarily a relationship between an earlier start to the monsoon and the rest of the season," said Rogers.