Hurricane forecast: Milton strengthens to Category 5 as it moves toward Florida

TAMPA, Fla. - Milton increased to a Category 5 hurricane later Monday morning as it barreled toward an already-battered Florida, prompting the state to prepare for what could be its biggest evacuation in seven years. 

According to the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds within Milton increased to 160 mph.

The storm-ravaged Gulf Coast in Florida is expected to be hit again, almost two weeks after Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic damage from Florida into the Appalachian Mountains.

Florida officials warned residents about potentially deadly storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rain, prompting watches and warnings for many parts of the state. 

Here’s what to know about Hurricane Milton:

Milton’s projected path 

While forecast models vary widely, the most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean. 

That would largely spare other southeastern states hit by Helene, which caused a death toll that rose Sunday to at least 230 people.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday said that while it remains to be seen where Milton will strike, it’s clear the state is going to be hit hard.

"I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point," DeSantis said.

"You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place," he added. "If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave."

RELATED: Hurricane Milton: Do you live in an evacuation zone? Here's how to find out

Hurricane Milton storm surge

A Storm Surge Watch was issued along Florida's Gulf Coast, and is in effect from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

The current storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay is between 8 and 12 feet if the peak surge coincides with high tide, according to FOX Weather. This is notably higher than during Helene, when Tampa Bay saw 7-8 feet of storm surge.

Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.

Hurricane Milton watches and warnings 

Hurricane Watches were issued along Florida’s Gulf Coast from about the Cedar Key area southward to Naples, including Tampa and Fort Myers.

Tropical Storm Watches were also issued for the Florida Keys, as well as for Gulf Coast communities from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee and from north of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass.