Trump, Harris neck and neck in key states Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina: poll
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are virtually tied in three crucial battleground states, according to new statewide surveys from Marist College.
The Marist Poll released Thursday finds that Harris and Trump are tied at 49% among likely voters in North Carolina who were asked which candidate they were leaning toward. Of those polled who have made up their minds, 91% said they strongly support their choice.
The race is tight in Arizona as well, where Trump polls just one point ahead of Harris, 50% to 49%, according to the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The same goes for Georgia, where 50% of likely voters are leaning towards Trump and 49% say they are more inclined to vote for Harris.
The Marist Polls were conducted from Sept. 19-24, surveying 4,643 registered voters across all three states who report they are definitely voting in this year's election.
There are 43 Electoral College votes up for grabs between Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump, a Republican, won all three in his 2016 victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but lost Arizona and Georgia to President Biden in his 2020 defeat. North Carolina, a swing state that Trump won twice, has an incumbent Democratic governor and appears more competitive this year as the Republican candidate for governor, Mark Robinson, is mired in scandal over posts he allegedly made on a porn website and polls poorly against state Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
"North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is both the Harris and Trump campaigns' backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "North Carolina is so close that the five regions in the state line up now almost exactly as they did four years ago. It's as if the Biden years and the 2024 campaign haven’t happened."
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% among North Carolina independents who are likely to vote. Biden carried Tar Heel independents by four points in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll. Harris leads Trump among Black voters 86% to 13%, but underperforms compared to Biden, who earned 92% of the Black vote in North Carolina in 2020. Trump has an advantage over Harris with white voters, 59% to 40%, though Harris has improved with this demographic over Biden, who won 33% of the white vote in 2020.
The top issues for North Carolina voters are inflation (32%), preserving democracy (28%), immigration (14%) and abortion (11%), according to the poll.
Over in Arizona, Harris edges Trump among independents 51% to 47%. Biden won Arizona independents by 9 points four years ago, 53% to Trump's 44%. Again, Trump leads Harris among white voters 51% to 48%, while the Latino vote is competitive, with 51% leaning towards Trump and 49% towards Harris.
The top issues for Arizona voters are preserving democracy (27%), inflation (26%), immigration (21%) and abortion (14%), the survey said.
"Arizona's 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, but the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate (Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.) has a double-digit lead," said Miringoff. "Voters in the state, like elsewhere, are willing to split their ticket this time unlike the straight party voting that occurred in 2016 and 2020."
Harris also leads Trump among Georgia independents by five percentage points, 51% to 46%. Similar to Arizona, Biden won Georgia independents by 9 points in what was the first presidential election win for Peach State Democrats since 1992. Trump heavily contested the 2020 results in Georgia and continues to make unproven allegations of widespread voter fraud that have been rejected by Georgia officials, including Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.
"Georgia was ground zero for election controversies in 2020. Yet, the overwhelming majority of Georgians express confidence that elections will be fair and accurate," said Miringoff. "Interestingly, most Democrats and Republicans share this view despite the results last time."
Georgia voters rank inflation as the top issue (34%), followed by preserving democracy (24%), immigration (13%) and abortion (11%).
A Fox News national poll taken after the first debate between Harris and Trump spotlighted that 39% of voters surveyed said the economy was their most pressing issue, far ahead of immigration (16%) and abortion (15%). All other issues tested were in single digits.
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"An increasing number say grocery prices and housing costs are tough for their family," the Fox News poll notes.
Trump led Harris on the economy by 5 points in the Fox News poll.
"The issue profile of this election continues to favor Trump," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson.
But Shaw added that Trump's "edge on economic issues has decreased, probably due to Harris’ messaging on housing costs and taxes, both of which target the middle class and appear to be paying off."