2 top experts predict outcome of presidential election – and arrive at different results
FILE-Side-by-side photo of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photo by Bridget Bennett for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Two political experts are predicting who they believe will win the presidential election race in November.
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman said that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the election, but pollster Nate Silver believes former President Donald Trump is going to be victorious based on data in his election model.
RELATED: Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling
Lichtman and Silver use two different methodologies to predict their picks for the White House.
How did Lichtman predict that Kamala Harris will win?
Allan Lichtman, a historian and "distinguished professor" of History at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, USA Today noted.
Lichtman developed a prediction system known as his "13 Keys to the White House" to determine the result of the elections.
RELATED: Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman makes 2024 election pick
In an interview with FOX 5 DC on Thursday, Lichtman said that Harris secured the majority of his "13 Keys to the White House," making her the candidate most likely to win the race.
The "Keys" are comprised of 13 categories:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate)
- KEY 2 (Contest)
- KEY 3 (Incumbency)
- KEY 4 (Third Party)
- KEY 5 (Short-Term Economy)
- KEY 6 (Long-Term Economy)
- KEY 7 (Policy Change)
- KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
- KEY 9 (Scandal)
- KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
- KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
- KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma)
- KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)
What system did Silver use to predict Trump will win in November?
Silver is an American statistician and founder of election analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
His new election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds, meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.
In a video posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday, Trump alluded to Silver’s prediction, saying "If you look at the, uh, Nate Silver -- very respected guy, I don't know him -- but he has me up by a lot."
Silver’s 2024 election forecast model is similar to his FiveThirtyEight election version with the methodology mostly the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced in his election model in 2020, according to his Silver Bulletin, a site offering the latest polling data.
His 2024 election model examines polling averages but adjusts for polls conducted among registered or likely voters. When predicting a winner, the model also uses national polls to make determinations about state polls.
The model also uses data on voters’ religious affiliation, along with other demographic, geographic and political changes, when calculating the similarity in the vote between different states.
In August, Silver predicted that Harris is slightly favored to win the presidential election if it were held then, but cautioned the public against relying too much on polls, citing their record of getting it "wrong" when it comes to former President Trump.
Map provided by: 270toWin.com