Arizona early voting numbers are down compared to 2018 election, polling researchers say
PHOENIX - As early ballots roll in and are tallied up around Arizona, some trends are emerging that are surprising to the polling group, Data Orbital.
The count is on with just days from Election Day on Nov. 8, and while the numbers look impressive, the actual number of ballots returned statewide so far, Arizona is lagging in votes tallied compared to 2018.
At this time during the midterms of 2018, more than 639,000 ballots had been returned statewide. As of Tuesday, Oct. 25, nearly 544,000 ballots have been returned.
Polling research firm Data Orbital President, George Khalaf, says Arizona is an outlier so far this year as returns are down 15% compared to the late October midterms of 2018.
"It is surprising we're seeing record-breaking numbers in states like Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The first state, Texas, is blowing it out of the water. Why aren't we seeing that in Arizona, it is very peculiar," Khalaf said.
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Looking at who is returning early ballots, Democrat ballot returns are up by about 7% over 2018 midterms. Republican ballot returns are down roughly 31%, but that's to be expected, Khalaf says, because of a mistrust of the election process.
"It's a once-in-a-generation shift because of election integrity concerns. There's no way around it. Republicans are holding onto their ballots. There is a distrust of what happens when turning in your ballot," he said.
He expects Republicans to flood the polls on Election Day.
What about independents? Their returns are also down from this time in 2018, sitting at about 16% fewer.
That should be worrisome to both parties, Khalaf says, but especially to Democrats because they need independents more to win.
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