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As Arizona reopens, health experts looking for spikes in cases
Some fear relaxed social distancing measures will mean a second wave of cases and more deaths. FOX 10's Brian Webb reports.
PHOENIX - State officials report that Arizona’s death toll from the coronavirus outbreak is nearing 600 with an additional 32 deaths reported statewide.
The Department of Health Services reported 594 deaths as of Wednesday with 12,176 positive cases, up 440 from Tuesday, with nearly 166,000 people tested.
The actual number of people infected is likely much higher because many with mild symptoms don’t seek testing and many who did were turned away for months because of a supply shortage.
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Gov. Doug Ducey said Tuesday he’ll let gyms and public swimming pools reopen and will allow his stay-at-home order to expire Friday as he continues easing restrictions imposed to slow the outbreak.
Ducey said lifting his stay-home order is safe because of a declining rate of cases, though it would be expected to decline since Arizona opened testing to people who aren’t showing symptoms. He also cited sufficient hospital capacity and growing abilities to test people and trace their contacts.
"This is not a green light to speed. This is a green light to proceed, and we're going to proceed with caution," Gov. Ducey said during a Tuesday news conference.
"I'm comfortable saying his decision is defensible," said Will Humble, Arizona's former health director.
Humble cautions that even the slightest changes to models can lead to dramatically different results, like the popular IHME model that is predicting a possible spike in deaths in Arizona by the end of August, if social distancing subsides.
Humble follows the projections put out by the people he knows and trusts at ASU and UArizona, which shows five different scenarios, ranging from a consistently flat curve to a spike in cases in the coming weeks.
“Are people going to continue to take this thing seriously or aren’t they?" said Humble. "If they are, we’re gonna be OK. We’re going to continue to see a decline in the threat from COVID-19. If they start blowing it off, we’re gonna see a rebound. It’s as simple as that."
Humble and other health officials worry about scenes like the ones that played out at a Tempe bar, which was seen packed with people. They fear this will turn the locations into a potential petri dish.
"If that’s what happens, then we’re all in big trouble and we’ve lost our all of our gains, and we could very well go back to the beginning where we have to [do a] stay-at-home order, and could even jeopardize our hospital capacity," said Humble.
For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia and death.
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Financial tips for the COVID-19 pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting everyone differently. Here are some helpful tips to keep you financially stable during this difficult time.
In order to protect yourself from a possible infection, the CDC recommends:
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
- Stay home when you are sick.
- Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.
MAP: Worldwide interactive Coronavirus case data
MAP: Arizona Coronavirus cases by zip code
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Coronavirus (COVID-19)
How it spreads, symptoms, prevention, treatment, FAQ
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus
Arizona COVID-19 Response
Public resources, FAQ, webinars
https://www.azdhs.gov/coronavirus
On CoronavirusNOW.com, you'll find extensive coverage about COVID-19, including breaking news from around the country, exclusive interviews with health officials, and informative content from a variety of public health resources.
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